What's likely to happen is the producers of both flour and yeast are going to ramp up to fill the shortages in the distribution channels, but at some point demand is likely to slow down a little, and then they'll have to slow down a bit as the channels get full. I could see a second cycle of shortages a few months down the road, especially if a lot of the newcomers decide they like baking their own bread.

I don't really want a small jar of yeast, and certainly not the little paper packets, which are way too expensive, I'd rather buy a one-pound package, though I've still got one unopened package in the pantry. (I'll probably need to open it next month, though.) I've never had liquid yeast to try it, you have to buy it in large buckets and it has a very short shelf life.

I may have to try the Deb Wink/Jeffrey Hamelman raisin bread recipe again, it starts by putting some raisins in water and letting the yeasts naturally present on grapes go to town. I tried it once, but I got a grey mold, which, according to Deb's instructions, was probably Botrytis cinerea, the fungus often present on grapes that is responsible for the 'noble rot' that produces the finest dessert wines, like Sauternes. However, it won't make bread.

skeptic, would you please elaborate a little more on the sponge method you use. I assume you put the 1 teaspoon yeast in water and flour, but how much water and flour, & for how long?

Thanks, swirth, for bringing this article to our attention. I guess I made a mistake when I ordered the KAF gold yeast the same day it went out of stock. The limit was 2. I ordered only 1, because I didn't want to hoard. I wanted someone else to have yeast, too. I also thought the SAF red yeast would soon be back in stock. Now, I know it won't.

On the Ciao Italia show I mentioned a few days ago (pizza), Mary Ann Esposito stressed that people use too much yeast. I have a couple of quick recipes I don't mind experimenting with, because I think they're a lot of yeast for quick results. Generally though, I'm inexperienced enough that I'd hesitate to reduce the yeast in written recipes, especially the KAF ones. Does anyone have advice on this?

There are several different types of pre-ferments/sponges, varying mainly on how much water they have in them. It is common for them to use 1/4 to 1/2 of the total flour in the recipe.

Almost any yeast bread recipe can be adapted to use a pre-ferment.

Let's say your recipe calls for 30 ounces of flour overall and 20 ounces of water, which would be 67% hydration. I tend to like pre-ferments that are a little looser than the final dough, say, 75% hydration. I think the additional water gives the yeast a boost.

You could do a 75% hydration biga starter with 12 ounces of flour and 9 ounces of water, plus 1/2 teaspoon of yeast. (A poolish is wetter, such as 12 ounces of flour to 12 ounces of water, again with a small amount of yeast.)

A pate fermentee (old dough) is also a type of sponge you can make up the day before if you don't have a previous day's dough to work with. It will often have some of the salt in it, as dough from a previous batch would. (Not too much, it can inhibit or kill the yeast.) In fact, you can make up a big batch of pate fermentee and it'll keep in the refrigerator for up to 4 days. (After that it starts acting a bit more like a sourdough starter, which expects periodic feedings and starts to take on a sour tang.)

Whatever you use for the pre-ferment, subtract it from the total when making the final dough. If there's sugar in the recipe, you could add some of it to the pre-ferment, that will also give the yeast something to munch on.

Let it sit overnight, it should be bubbly by morning. I often add another 1/2 teaspoon of yeast to the final dough, but that's still less than half of what a recipe that uses 30 ounces of flour would probably call for, and probably less than a third of what a recipe written in the 50's would use.

I used to keep track of how long a pound of yeast lasted me, 2-3 months wasn't unusual. These days it is more like 6-8 months, because there's just the two of us and I've been making more recipes that use a pre-ferment or my rye starter so they don't require as much commercial yeast, sometimes none at all.

ItalianCook;
My introduction to sponges came from "From a Baker's Kitchen", and after that I read everything I could, and probably got it wrong. However here is an easy example from my basic English Muffin recipe with 1/3 whole wheat.
Ingredients
1 1/3 cup whole wheat flour
2 2/3 cup white flour
1 tsp yeast
1 cup water -- room temperature
1/2 cup milk -- scalded
1 tsp salt
3 tablespoons butter.

Dissolve the yeast into the water. Mix in the whole wheat flour. This will form a batter. Cover and leave it alone until it is light and bubbly. This is the sponge part. It also lets the bran in the whole wheat flour absorb liquid and become soft before kneading
Mix in the milk. Mix the salt into one cup of white flour and blend it in. Mix or knead in enough additional flour to form a stiff dough. Let rise a little.
Knead in the butter and enough flour to make it manageable. Knead the dough until fully kneaded.
Divide dough into 9 parts and put in greased English muffin rings. Let rise until fluffy and bake at 350 degrees for 15 minutes, or 400 degrees for 10 minutes.

I make all my bread by hand and a number of the waiting steps are there to make kneading easier, like letting the dough rest before kneading in the butter

The article said that while dry yeast is in short supply demand for fresh yeast is softening... I have never baked with fresh yeast. Another thing on my list...

You understand, by 'fresh yeast' they probably mean liquid yeast in a 5 gallon bucket, not yeast cakes. The only place I know of to get the yeast cakes right now is NY Bakers, and by the time you throw in fedex delivery it gets pretty pricey.

I remember using a Joy of Cooking recipe that called for fresh yeast cakes. At that time, probably mid 70s, I bought them in the grocery store. This was for a very rich pastry. I haven't seen them recently.